Surprisingly Close At The First Tests

The Grid Is Surprisingly Close!!

This has been one of the main stories of testing this season. All the rule changes have effectively meant that each team has started from a new sheet of paper. Many figures expected this would spread the grid out. Last season, the field spread came down to about two seconds. This is the closest it had been for many season, attributed to the fact that the rules had been stable for a few seasons up to that point.

Amazingly, despite the changes, the grid looks set to close up even more. During the tests, the field has been separated on average by 2.0 to 2.5 seconds. When you take into account that some teams would have been running high fuel programmes, and others low fuel programmes, then the field is likely to be even closer than that.

We won’t see how much time covers the entire field until we start qualifying in Melbourne. I would guess the field spread could well be as low as 1.5 seconds. This would be pretty astonishing.

So why is it so close?

Simply put, many teams have adapted to the rules well and created great cars. We also have to remember that there are a huge number of large manufacturer teams compared to years' past. These teams are extremely well-funded, and have top-range facilities in place. There are more teams with the power and capabilities to build a great F1 car.

Out of the current teams, Toro Rosso and Force India are the ones most likely to be classed as minnows. Toro Rosso is, technically speaking, a customer team of Red Bull, (who look as if they have a great car), and Force India has formed a technical collaboration with Mclaren. Thanks to this, both these teams are going to improve significantly as well, despite not being as well off as the teams above them.

Compare this to the last set of major rule changes in 1998. The field spread out then—which perhaps is why many expected the same to happen this time around—but the difference was there were far more lower funded teams with nowhere near the level of facilities that many teams have now. These teams included the likes of Minardi, Arrows, Stewart Ford, Tyrell, Prost, and Sauber.

Adapting to huge new rules stretched these small teams to the absolute limit. This is a big reason why the field of 1998 spread out. The situation in 2009 is very different with many more big teams on the grid, and the minnows well supported with partnerships with other teams. I bet Minardi and Arrows would have loved a technical collaboration with Mclaren or Ferrari back in their day.

This season, a bunch of very talented and well developed teams have had the chance to start fresh. Every team started the 2009 development at the same place: on the starting line.

In the last couple of seasons, most of the teams have matched each other in terms of development rate. The main problem for the likes of Red Bull and Toyota was that they started the season over a second behind Ferrari and Mclaren. With stable rule changes, it was always an impossible task to make big inroads into that lead. Starting from scratch, and at the same level as Ferrari and Mclaren, they have a chance to edge ahead if they adapt better to the 2009 rules.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Analysing Testing in Barcelona 2009 package

This week, all the F1 teams have been in Barcelona for the last major F1 test of the year. For many, it was their final chance to put miles on the car and learn about their 2009 package.


The Difficulty of Analysing Testing

When studying testing times, you have to take them with a pinch of salt; we won’t know until Melbourne what the real pecking order is. There are many different variables in testing, which can give a misleading picture of who is where.

For example, we don’t know what programmes the teams are working on. They might be working on a particular area of setup. They could just be testing the reliability of the car. They could be getting used to the tyres’ behaviour over a single lap or a race distance. They are learning as much as they can about their cars, as opposed to chasing that outright quick lap.

Importantly, we don’t know how much fuel the teams are carrying. This alone can make a huge difference to the lap times. Some teams opt to run light, whereas others always tend to run heavy in testing.

Track conditions also contribute to lap times. The track conditions change throughout the day. The race track is a living creature; it will normally get more rubber on it as the test day goes on. However, any precipitation will wash all that rubber away. The track will become “green,” and therefore much slower than it was previously.

Despite all of these variables, it’s still possible to see patterns that are forming. You can spot which teams look like they are in good shape and who may indeed struggle.

By the end of testing, you can get a rough idea of how the pecking order is looking. In the last test session, in particular, a clearer picture begins to emerge. At this point teams need to assess how fast their cars really are.

Also in this final week many teams will do simulations of the race weekend. This offers the best chance of comparing their performances.

Each season, though, there is always at least one team that doesn’t end up where testing suggests they should have.

Teams may run ultra light to attract sponsors or may run extremely heavy to hide their true speed. This is a term often referred to as “sandbagging.”

In 2001, Prost were setting very fast lap times, and even broke a lap record! Once the season started, they were nowhere near the front of the grid. At the time, Alain Prost’s team were struggling for funds, so they ran their car under the minimum required weight to set fast times and attract sponsors.

Quite a devious little plan!

Last season, BMW Sauber didn’t look too good for much of preseason testing. However, they caused a big shock when Robert Kubica came from nowhere to almost snatch pole position from Lewis Hamilton in Melbourne.

So the big question on every F1 fan’s lips is how is the current order looking as things currently stand?

Monday, March 16, 2009

Bruno Senna upset on Honda, Barrichello

Rubens Barrichello has indicated he is set to prolong his record holding Formula 1 career for at least one more year, while countryman Bruno Senna admits his hopes for the vacant Honda seat have faded.

It has been reported this week that, despite rookie Senna's strong links with the Brackley based team throughout the winter, the soon to be renamed outfit has plumped instead for an unchanged driver lineup.

"My faith says that next week I'll be driving a competitive car in the tests in Barcelona, although I have no document in my hands that assures me of that," 36-year-old Barrichello, already in Britain awaiting developments, told Sao Paulo's O Estado newspaper.

25-year-old Senna, meanwhile, the nephew of Barrichello's late mentor Ayrton Senna, admits he met with team boss Ross Brawn on Wednesday "and he cancelled" their prospective collaboration for 2009.

"I'm kind of resigned to trying something else," he told the same newspaper, amid speculation the 2008 GP2 Series runner up might switch to the German touring car series DTM.

Senna said: "I'm just a little upset because this situation has dragged on for so long, making me lose better professional possibilities."

"Now I'm going to get together with my family, with my advisors, and decide what way to take."

An announcement about Honda's plans for 2009 is possible on Friday, when it is expected the newly Mercedes powered car may be debuted at Silverstone.

The team, likely to be known as Brawn Racing in 2009, did not comment.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Alonso could start driving for Ferrari

Two-time F1 champion Fernando Alonso could start driving for Ferrari in 2011 or even sooner if Kimi Raikkonen doesn't shine, Italian sports paper La Gazzetta Sportiva reported on Sunday.

Gazzetta wrote without attribution that a deal had been made that could bring Alonso to Ferrari in 2011 on a contract of three or four years, although both sides are keeping their options open.

Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo was vague about the team's long-term driver options when chatting with journalists at a recent holiday dinner, the paper reported.

"We have Massa and Raikkonen under contract for the next two years," Montezemolo said. "As for the future, we'll see. Alonso is a great champion, but life is long. He's young."

Gazzetta indicated that the pressure is on Raikkonen, the 2007 world champion, to deliver. Ferrari officials declined to comment on the report.

Last month, Alonso opted to stay with Renault, signing a two-year contract extension that will keep him at the French Formula One team through 2010.

Monday, December 29, 2008